9 Higher Ed Trends Shaping 2026

Higher education is entering a year defined by demographic shifts, rising accountability expectations, and rapid advances in AI. These forces are reshaping how institutions operate and how companies support them. This year’s trends highlight the developments that will matter most for leaders across the ecosystem.

1. As the demographic cliff arrives, non-traditional pathways become a lifeline

With the number of 18-year-olds peaking in 2025, 2026 will mark the first year of a 15-year slide in first-time undergraduates; the demographic cliff is no longer a metaphor but a math problem. New international enrollment is falling fast (down 17% this fall), while dual-enrollment pipelines show early promise with 6% growth. A softening labor market may send more adults back to school. The momentum, however, may tilt toward certificates and non-degree credentials, especially with Workforce Pell arriving in 2026 to raise the bar on quality. Institutions that lean into dual enrollment, high-quality non-degree credentials, and demonstrable workforce outcomes will be better positioned to withstand the cliff.

2. Heightened federal and state accountability pressures make paychecks and pathways the new rules of student success

New federal rules, including the 2023 Financial Value Transparency & Gainful Employment regulations and the 2025 OBBBA legislation, are increasing scrutiny on program-level outcomes such as cohort default rates, first-year earnings, Pell-recipient results, and job placement rates. Metrics historically emphasized mainly in the for-profit sector are now becoming universal compliance and reputational benchmarks across all sectors. According to the U.S. Department of Education’s 2024 accountability release, more than 1,700 programs would fail or be at risk under the new earnings-to-debt thresholds, underscoring why institutions must strengthen data tracking and student-outcome reporting.

3. Interdisciplinary pathways will outpace traditional humanities in student demand

Fall 2025 enrollment data from the National Student Clearinghouse show steady national growth, particularly for 2-year institutions serving increasing numbers of dual-enrolled students, but the real story is how traditional undergraduate portfolios are shifting. Tyton’s three-year conferral analysis (2021-24) points to rising student preference for interdisciplinary pathways that blend liberal arts with technical or career-aligned skills, while standalone majors like English (-5% CAGR), history (-3% CAGR), and communications (-5% CAGR) continue to lose ground. For institutions, the opportunity is to redesign humanities programs by embedding applied competencies and AI fluency, equipping students not only to use AI, but to leverage it in their fields.

4. Non-degree credentials will become a core enrollment and employability strategy

Institutions will accelerate adoption of platforms that deliver non-degree credentials such as micro-credentials and digital badges. These stackable offerings will strengthen students’ employable competencies and improve their ability to signal job readiness, supported by the National Association of Colleges and Employers (NACE) data showing that 65% of employers now prioritize skills-based hiring practices. To remain competitive as enrollment pressures intensify, institutions will increasingly rely on these credentials, a trend reflected in the National Student Clearinghouse finding that undergraduate certificate earners grew by a record 11% year over year.

5. Elimination of GradPLUS loans will reduce enrollment in select healthcare graduate programs, and lead to new institution-employer partnerships to mitigate impact on labor shortages

Recent federal policy updates eliminate Grad PLUS Loans and impose strict borrowing caps on programs defined under a new, narrow “professional degree” classification. This definition excludes many health-related degrees (e.g., nursing, physician assistant studies, and physical therapy) and will significantly constrain students’ ability to finance expensive clinical education. As a result, enrollment in healthcare postsecondary programs is likely to decline, with disproportionate effects on women, who make up the majority of the workforce in these fields. Consequently, this contraction in the pipeline will widen the existing gap between healthcare degree conferrals and employer demand. In response, institutions and employers are likely to pursue more creative financing models, including institutional subsidies or service-linked tuition agreements in which employers cover education costs in exchange for post-graduation commitments.

6. Shared services and institutional mergers will accelerate across both small colleges and regional publics

Rising operational costs, enrollment pressure, and widening structural deficits are pushing not only small private colleges but also regional public universities into shared-services arrangements, affiliations, and full mergers. Institutions are increasingly consolidating back-office functions (IT, HR, finance), academic programs, and even governance structures to reduce duplication and stabilize long-term viability while maintaining full control over key identity areas such as admissions decision-making, financial aid administration, and academic oversight.

7. Institutions will shift their approach to AI by actively managing the technology as an enterprise asset

Our research suggests that more than 40% of institutions will adopt AI enterprise-wide and implement institution-level policies in the next three years. Taking a defensive or restrictive position will perpetuate the gaps in use between learners and their institutions. Institutions that see the technology as a tool for operational improvement and an enabler of new approaches for teaching and learning will realize powerful outcomes.

8. Data interoperability becomes a strategic advantage — and a prerequisite for unlocking AI’s full value

Institutions are accelerating efforts to integrate data across SIS, LMS, CRM, advising, financial, and student-support systems as they move toward more connected technology ecosystems. Without unified data, they struggle to generate reliable analytics, personalize student experiences, or deploy AI in ways that improve operations. For companies serving higher education, this creates a clear imperative: deliver open architectures, seamless integrations, and strong data-exchange capabilities to help institutions build a truly interoperable digital ecosystem.

9. Institutions prioritize CRM and lifecycle engagement platforms to improve yield and retention

As enrollment volatility grows, institutions are investing more heavily in CRM and lifecycle-engagement tools that support recruitment, onboarding, student engagement, and alumni relations within a single coordinated ecosystem. Institutions increasingly want technology that can track and engage students across the entire lifecycle — not just prospects or enrolled students — to improve communication consistency and data visibility. According to a recent Tyton Partners survey, CRM systems are one of the top product categories that institutional leaders expect to adopt or upgrade in the coming year, underscoring the rising demand for coordinated, data-driven engagement platforms that can improve yield and retention.

At Tyton Partners, we work alongside institutions and companies to understand market dynamics, evaluate strategic options, and design solutions that drive stronger outcomes for learners and more sustainable business models for our clients.

If your organization is navigating these trends or planning ahead for what comes next, we’d welcome a conversation.

Reach out to explore how Tyton can support your strategy and help you move from insight to action.